Water in the Global Goals for Adaptation – Why It Matters

Note: this article first appeared on CWR website on 28 October 2025 under the following link: https://cwrrr.org/opinions/water-in-the-global-goals-for-adaptation-why-it-matters/

For those following climate policy, the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) is gaining visibility. This November at COP30 in Brazil, Parties to the UNFCCC are expected to adopt a decision establishing a set of indicators to track global progress toward the GGA. As a member of the technical expert group supporting this process, convened by the Subsidiary Body (SB) chairs, this article offers a brief overview of this evolving global agenda – and how water is being considered within its framework.

What is GGA – and why does it matter?

Established under Article 7 of the Paris Agreement, the GGA aims to enhance adaptive capacity, strengthen resilience, and reduce vulnerability to climate change, while supporting sustainable development and ensuring an adequate adaptation response in line with the temperature goal in Article 2.

Unlike the 1.5°C target or “net zero”, the GGA remains relatively obscure outside UN climate circles. Progress toward operationalising it accelerated only until COP26 in 2021, with the launch of a dedicated work programme. It gained momentum at COP28 in 2023, where the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience (UAE Framework) and a two-year initiative were announced to develop indicators for tracking adaptation progress.

The urgency is clear. Climate-related disasters are intensifying, and adaptation solutions present significant opportunities – estimated at up to US$9 trillion by 2050, more than 2x India’s current GDP. To realise this potential, a shared understanding of the goal and a robust set of metrics are essential to guide resources toward vulnerable communities, ecosystems, and effective solutions.

While many adaptation frameworks exist, the UAE Framework is the only one endorsed by all 198 Parties (including 197 states plus the EU) to the UNFCCC. The indicators developed under this framework will offer the most widely accepted metrics for both public and private sectors to align efforts toward a common global goal.

How is water featured in the GGA?

Water is the primary medium through which climate impacts are felt. Over 90% of disasters being water-related, and most adaptation measures involve water in some form. Building resilience to floods, droughts, and water scarcity is essential for protecting human rights, economic stability, and environmental health.

The UAE Framework outlines seven thematic and four dimensional targets. Water is one of the thematic targets, aiming to: [s]ignificantly reducing climate-induced water scarcity and enhancing climate resilience to water-related hazards towards a climate-resilient water supply, climate-resilient sanitation and access to safe and affordable potable water for all”.

In addition, the UAE Framework also includes targets across four dimensions of the adaptation cycle, namely: impact, vulnerability, risk assessment; planning; implementation; and monitoring, evaluation, and learning (10a-10d in Table 1). This structure helps identify sector-specific needs across the different stages of adaptation actions.

The status of work programme on indicators

The UAE-Bélem work programme received 9,529 indicators from Parties and stakeholders, with 1,046 mapped to the water target (9a).

This list of water indicators was narrowed to 33 indicators ahead of SB62 (the 62nd Sessions of the Subsidiary Bodies of UNFCCC) in Bonn in June 2025, and further refined to a final proposed set of 10 indicators submitted by experts in September 2025.

As noted in the accompanying technical report, “[t]he compilation of the indicators is not exhaustive of all possible adaptation indicators. It is a carefully curated set aimed to provide a robust foundation for assessing progress towards the targets of the UAE Framework while aligning with the guidance and criteria outlined in various decisions relevant to the Framework“.

The proposed set of 10 indicators address all of the sub-components of the target, including:

1. significantly reducing climate-induced water scarcity;

2. enhancing climate resilience to water-related hazards;

3. towards a climate-resilient water supply;

4. towards a climate-resilient sanitation; and

5. access to safe and affordable potable water for all.

One of them is a target-specific enabler indicator.

Ice and transboundary waters just made the cut – for now

A recent report from Water Resilience Tracker emphasised the need for long-term monitoring of key water systems, recommending the inclusion of indicators for transboundary water cooperation and cryosphere-related risks.

The cryosphere – glaciers, ice sheets, permafrost, and snow – holds 70% of the world’s freshwater and supports over two billion people, especially in seasonally dry regions like the Andes, Central Asia, and the Himalayas. Similarly, about 60% of the world’s freshwater flows through transboundary rivers. These river basins cover 151 countries, 47% of the land surface, and around 52% of the world’s population.

Despite their importance, these water systems remain underrepresented. Only one indicator referencing the cryosphere made the cut, folded into the proposed indicator 9a04 – “Proportion of total area of basins (river, lake or aquifer) and cryosphere (glacier, snow and ice) for which a climate adaptation plan is developed and implemented as part of an integrated water resources management approach“. Transboundary rivers are only implicitly covered under basins.

Political sensitivities play a role. Indicators perceived as contentious may not survive final negotiations. This highlights the persistent challenge of elevating critical water systems in global processes – what isn’t measured often isn’t funded.

Toward systemic water resilience

To truly advance system-wide water resilience, the GGA must move beyond fragmented metrics and sectoral silos. COP30 presents a pivotal moment to embed water and cryosphere considerations at the core of adaptation efforts. This requires not only refining indicators and methodologies, but also embracing the complexity of interconnected systems – from high mountain glaciers to coastal aquifers. A systemic framing would elevate water from a thematic concern to a strategic lever for climate resilience, equity, and peace.

Unlocking this potential demands a shift in how we value water. Traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA) often undervalue its long-term and cross-sectoral benefits, particularly in vulnerable regions. WRI’s recent analysis, using standard CBA and the Triple Dividend of Resilience framework, found that investments in water-related adaptation investments yield lower economic internal rates of return (EIRRs of 15 to 19.5 %) compared to other adaptation sectors – largely due to undervalued benefits in CBAs. Expanding valuation methods to include those “hidden” values of water, such as avoided losses, social and ecological benefits, is thus essential for mobilising finance and directing adaptation efforts where they are most needed.

Moreover, the cryosphere must be brought into focus. Its rapid decline threatens water security, agriculture, and hydropower, with cascading risks across regions. The Hindu Kush Himalaya region may lose up to 75% of its glacier mass by 2100, while Arctic permafrost thaw alone could unleash climate damages of nearly US$70 trillion. Integrating cryosphere dynamics into adaptation frameworks – alongside water – helps bridge global goals with local realities, ensuring mountain communities are not left behind and long-term systemic water securities are not overlooked.

As the GGA continues to take shape, I hope there will be growing recognition of water’s central role and the urgency of cryosphere protection. The path may be winding, but the evidence from science and lived experience is crystal clear. With bold leadership and inclusive collaboration, countries have the opportunity to mark a turning point – where adaptation evolves from a technical fix into a transformative journey toward lasting resilience and equity.